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As of 2025, ten years after the Paris Agreement, Africa’s adherence to its commitments is a complex picture, marked by both increased ambition and significant challenges, particularly concerning climate finance. The continent has been active in climate diplomacy, but a persistent lack of funding from developed nations has hampered on-the-ground implementation.
Progress and Increasing Ambition
- Renewed Climate Leadership: African nations are increasingly asserting their role as key players in global climate action. This is evidenced by initiatives like the 2025 Africa Climate Summit in Addis Ababa, which resulted in the “Addis Ababa Declaration.” This declaration outlines Africa’s unified position ahead of COP30, emphasizing adaptation, finance, and green industrialization.
- Updated National Pledges (NDCs): The Paris Agreement requires countries to submit new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years. As of 2025, a new round of NDCs is expected. While the previous round saw many countries, including some in Africa, submit pledges that were not ambitious enough to meet the 1.5°C target, there is a push for these new NDCs to be more ambitious and aligned with that goal. For example, South Africa has already updated its mitigation targets, including its first adaptation communication.
- Focus on Adaptation and Just Transition: Africa has consistently prioritized adaptation and resilience, given its high vulnerability to climate impacts like droughts, floods, and heatwaves. This focus is a central theme in discussions and initiatives, including the Africa Just Resilience Framework. The continent is also advocating for a “Just Transition” that is uniquely African, extending beyond energy to encompass broader development goals and social inclusion.
- Regional Cooperation: There is a growing emphasis on regional cooperation and platforms to coordinate climate action and attract international support. For example, the Africa Climate Innovation Compact aims to mobilize significant funding for local climate solutions.
Key Challenges and Gaps
- Climate Finance: This remains the most significant obstacle. The broken promise by developed nations to provide $100 billion a year in climate finance is a major source of mistrust. The funding that has been provided is often in the form of loans, which risks deepening the debt crisis in many African countries. There is a strong, unified push from African leaders for a new, predictable, and grant-based climate finance goal (the New Collective Quantified Goal, or NCQG) that is based on assessed needs.
- The Implementation Gap: While many African countries have submitted NDCs, the actual implementation of these plans is hindered by the lack of financial and technical support. A significant portion of climate finance for developing countries has been directed towards mitigation projects rather than adaptation, which is a critical need for Africa.
- Fossil Fuel Production: The Paris Agreement does not explicitly regulate fossil fuel production. This has led to some African nations exploring or expanding fossil fuel projects, a move that is seen as a way to address energy poverty and drive economic development. However, this is at odds with the global push to phase out fossil fuels. The concept of a “Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty” has been gaining traction, which could complement the Paris Agreement by providing a framework for a just transition away from fossil fuels.
What to Look for in COP30 in Brazil
COP30, to be held in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025, will be a critical conference, marking the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement. The location itself, in the Amazon rainforest, places forests and nature at the center of the agenda. Here are the key issues to watch for:
- New NDCs and the Global Stocktake: COP30 is the deadline for countries to submit their new, more ambitious NDCs. Following the first-ever Global Stocktake at COP28, which showed the world is not on track to meet its climate goals, the pressure is on for these new pledges to close the “mitigation gap.” The level of ambition in Africa’s new NDCs, and the financial support offered to implement them, will be a key storyline.
- The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Finance: COP29 in Baku will have already made progress on this, but COP30 will be a crucial moment to finalize the new post-2025 climate finance goal. Africa will be demanding a goal that is not only much larger than the previous $100 billion but is also grant-based, predictable, and prioritizes adaptation. The structure and accountability mechanisms of the NCQG will be heavily debated.
- Forests and Indigenous Rights: The choice of Belém as the host city means that forests and indigenous communities will be central to the negotiations. Expect major announcements and pledges on deforestation, reforestation, and the role of nature-based solutions. The “Amazon COP” will likely put pressure on countries, including those in Africa, to demonstrate concrete progress on their commitments to halt and reverse forest loss.
- Loss and Damage Fund: While the fund was operationalized at COP28, key details on its structure, funding, and accessibility are still being worked out. African countries, which are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, will be pushing for the fund to be fully funded and accessible, without adding to their debt burdens.
- A “Just Transition” and Equity: The concept of a just transition will be a core theme. Brazil is proposing a “Global Mutirão”—a collective mobilization rooted in indigenous values—to bring together diverse stakeholders. African nations will be advocating for a just transition that addresses energy poverty and allows for economic development while moving towards a low-carbon future. The concept of a “Global Ethical Stocktake” proposed by Brazil could bring new focus to the issues of historical responsibility and climate justice.
